February's BTO Launch Is Small and Central. Here Is What the Resale Alternative Costs

HDB has been launching close to 20,000 BTO flats a year. The Straits Times puts the totals at 19,723 in 2025 and 19,608 in 2026. A February exercise of about 4,300 flats is a modest start to 2027, though the paper notes that at least 15,600 BTO flats will be launched across the year, and that National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said in May 2026 that HDB is likely to exceed its commitment of 55,000 new flats between 2025 and 2027.

Here is what HDB will offer, as the paper reported it:

Added up, the five projects come to 4,280 flats. 1,500 of them, about 35%, are 2-room Flexi flats. There are 560 five-room flats, and 440 of those, about 79%, are in Tengah. The classifications are analysts' expectations; HDB announces them at launch.

One thing will soften the rush. HDB will run a Sale of Balance Flats exercise alongside it, with about 5,000 flats that are completed or being built, and analysts told the paper that could taper demand for the new projects. Our guide to the Sale of Balance Flats explains how it differs from a BTO.

The Toa Payoh project is the second BTO project in the Mount Pleasant estate. Its 1,140 flats will sit right by the future Mount Pleasant station on the Thomson-East Coast Line, with an eating house, a preschool, an active ageing centre and a residents' network centre.

The first, Mount Pleasant Crest, was launched in October 2025 and classified Prime. Analysts expect the second to be Prime too. That matters: a Prime flat comes with tighter rules, and at Mount Pleasant Crest HDB set a subsidy recovery of 12% of the resale price or valuation on the first resale.

PropNex's Wong Siew Ying told the paper the project is "virtually at the doorstep" of the station, which links directly to Orchard and the CBD, and close to schools such as CHIJ Primary (Toa Payoh), St Joseph's Institution and Singapore Chinese Girls' School. Realion Group's Christine Sun was cooler. She pointed to the project's nearness to the Pan-Island Expressway, which may bring noise and dust, and its distance from central Toa Payoh's amenities.

Both readings are fair. Our review of Mount Pleasant Crest covers the first project's layout, prices and rates in detail.

In August we wrote about the shorter-waiting-time flats being built at Sin Ming and Toa Payoh. At the time HDB had given no launch date, and we read the mid-2030 completion as pointing to a sale in mid-2027 at the earliest. It is coming sooner than that.

The Sin Ming project will have about 1,070 flats with waiting times of under three years: 520 2-room Flexi, 80 three-room and 470 four-room flats, with a supermarket and a preschool. It is about 900m from Marymount station on the Circle Line and about 800m from Upper Thomson on the Thomson-East Coast Line. Because it sits in a central town but some way from an MRT station, analysts expect it to be classified Plus.

Mogul.sg's Nicholas Mak told the paper it is likely to be popular because there is little land left in Bishan for new BTO projects. Sun agreed, noting that buyers looking around Upper Thomson, Ang Mo Kio, Marymount or Lentor would pay much more for a resale flat or a private home. Wong expects three to four applicants per unit for both the Toa Payoh and Bishan projects.

The smaller 40-storey block on Lorong 4 Toa Payoh that we covered alongside Sin Ming in August is not among February's five projects.

Analysts were unanimous that of the two Tampines projects, the 460-unit one in Upper Changi will draw more attention, because it offers five-room flats. It is close to Upper Changi and Expo stations and will have an eating house, a minimart and four shops. ERA's Eugene Lim said fresh five-room supply in the town is tight: the last Tampines project with five-rooms was Simei Symphony in July 2025. Sun expects Upper Changi to be Standard, as Simei Symphony was.

The 330-unit project in Tampines Street 11 serves a different buyer. 240 of its flats are community care apartments, the first in Tampines, alongside 90 four-room flats. Wong sees them serving older residents who want to age in place. Our guide to community care apartments explains how they work. Wong expects the two Tampines projects together to draw five or more applicants per flat, citing rates of 4.2 to 24.1 across the town's last five BTO launches.

In Tengah, the 1,280-flat project in the Brickland district is the launch's biggest, and holds most of its five-room flats. Analysts expect it to be Standard, and note it is near the upcoming Brickland station on the North-South Line. We looked at what Tengah's newer layouts give up in our piece on Tengah's small kitchens.

The resale market is the alternative for anyone who does not get a BTO flat, and the yardstick for how good a deal the BTO price is. Here is what our analysis of HDB resale data shows for the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026. Tengah has no resale flats yet, so we show its neighbours, Bukit Batok and Choa Chu Kang.

Two cautions on reading this. A town median mixes every block, floor and age, so it is not the price of any one flat. And Toa Payoh's figure leans heavily on new flats: of its 401 four-room resales, 211 had leases from 2015, most of them in Bidadari (Bidadari Park Drive and Alkaff Crescent). That is why the town's median 4-room lease left is 91 years, and why its median price per square foot, $1,028, is so far above Bishan's $730.

The million-dollar count tells the same story. Over the year, 293 Toa Payoh resales, 29.2% of the town's total, sold for $1 million or more: more than any other town. Bishan had 98, or 23.9%, seventh of 26 towns. Nationally the share was 7.5%.

February's prices are not out yet. The best guide is what HDB charged at the nearest recent launches in the same towns. These are HDB's indicative prices before grants, for a 99-year lease:

In Toa Payoh the gap is wide. Even the top of Mount Pleasant Crest's 4-room range sat about $213k below the town's resale median, and about $303k below the $1.09M median for Toa Payoh 4-room flats with leases from 2015, which is the closest resale match for a brand-new flat.

The 3-room row is the interesting one. Toa Payoh's old 3-room resale flats, with a median 46 years of lease left, sold at a median $380k, less than any Mount Pleasant Crest 3-room. A newer one, with a lease from 2015, sold at a median $809k, about $257k above the top Mount Pleasant Crest 3-room price. Lim told the paper that smaller households keen on Toa Payoh might wait for February, since Mount Pleasant will offer 3-room flats and the November project there does not.

In Bishan and Tampines the gap is narrower than you might expect. Bishan Terraces' top 4-room price was about $53k below Bishan's resale median, and Simei Symphony's top 5-room price about $47k below Tampines'. Per square foot, the new flats were priced not far below the resale market. What the BTO buyer gets for that is a full 99-year lease. Bishan's resale 4-rooms had a median 63 years left, and Tampines' 5-rooms 69 years. Against Tampines 5-room flats with leases from 2015, which sold at a median $925k, Simei Symphony's top price was about $162k lower.

Mak's point about Bishan's limited land shows up plainly in the resale data. Over October 2025 to September 2026, Bishan had 410 resales. None were of a flat with a lease starting in 2015 or later. The youngest flats that changed hands had leases from 2011.

Compare Toa Payoh, where Bidadari's new blocks supplied 211 of the town's 4-room resales, or Tampines, where 183 of the town's five-room resales had leases from 2015, most of them on Tampines North Drive 1 and Tampines Street 61. A Bishan buyer who wants a young flat has, in effect, only the BTO.

Bishan's older flats are not cheap either. The median 5-room sold for $970k and the median executive flat for $1.29M, and 42 of the town's 109 five-room resales crossed $1 million.

Sin Ming has no five-room flats, though. Its 470 four-rooms are the nearest thing to a family flat in the project, and they will be the contested ones. The 520 2-room Flexi flats, mainly for singles and seniors, are a different contest.

HDB publishes its final application rates by applicant group. Here are the three launches closest to February's projects:

Wong's forecast of three to four applicants per unit for Toa Payoh and Bishan sits close to what the October 2025 projects drew. For context, HDB's median first-timer family rate for 3-room and bigger flats across the whole October 2025 exercise was 1.9, so both central projects were well above the exercise as a whole.

Simei Symphony shows what scarce five-room supply does. Its five-room flats drew 12.8 applications each, and there were 52.4 second-timer family applications for each flat set aside for them. Upper Changi's 120 five-rooms are likely to face something similar, though Tengah's 440 five-rooms in the same exercise may draw some of that demand away.

Two cautions. These rates include repeat applicants from earlier launches, and a first-timer family rate below 1 does not guarantee a flat in the type you want. Our guide to BTO application rates explains how to read them, and our piece on ballot chances with children looks at how priority schemes shift the odds.

The November 2026 exercise is open now, and it includes Toa Payoh Hillside in Toa Payoh and Plantation Dew in Tengah. Lim's comparisons are useful: Mount Pleasant is one MRT stop from Toa Payoh Hillside, and Brickland may suit those who miss out on Plantation Dew.

Our view, which is opinion and not advice:

• If you want a Toa Payoh 3-room, February is the obvious one to watch, since Mount Pleasant will offer 90 of them and, per Lim, Toa Payoh Hillside offers none.
• If you want a central 4-room, both exercises are competitive. The resale gap in Toa Payoh makes any BTO there valuable, but a Prime flat carries tighter resale rules, and Mount Pleasant Crest's estimated wait was 59 months. Sin Ming's under-three-year wait is the real draw there.
• If you want a five-room, February offers 560 of them, but 440 are in Tengah. Upper Changi's 120 are the scarce ones.
• If you are flexible, the Sale of Balance Flats running alongside February's BTO adds about 5,000 flats, some of them completed.

Whatever you do, check the classification and the estimated waiting time when HDB publishes them at launch. Our BTO launch schedule tracks what is coming.

Some limits, stated plainly.

February's prices are not known. Our BTO prices are HDB's indicative ranges from October 2025 and July 2025. HDB may price the new projects differently, and they are before grants.

The classifications are analysts' guesses. Prime, Plus or Standard decides the resale rules and any subsidy recovery, and HDB announces it at launch.

Town medians are mixes. Toa Payoh's 4-room median leans on Bidadari's new blocks. Bishan's on flats that are decades old. Neither is a price for a flat at Mount Pleasant or Sin Ming.

Per square foot is a rough match. HDB's BTO price per square foot is our arithmetic on its midpoint price per square metre, which includes the air-con ledge; resale floor areas are HDB's recorded areas.

The resale data runs to September 2026. October's registrations are still filling in, so we left them out.

What we would not hedge on: in Toa Payoh, and for young flats in Bishan and Tampines, a BTO flat costs a long way below its resale alternative. That is why these projects will be oversubscribed.

Two kinds of numbers, kept apart.

From the reporting: each project's flats, mix, location and facilities, the analysts' views and forecasts, the Sale of Balance Flats and the yearly BTO totals come from The Straits Times, linked below. The 4,280 total, the 1,500 2-room Flexi flats and the 560 five-room flats are our sums of its project figures.

PropKaki's own data:

• Resale figures cover HDB resale registrations from October 2025 to September 2026, by town and flat type: count, median, median floor area and price per square foot (resale price divided by floor area in square feet), and median remaining lease. "Lease from 2015" means the lease began in 2015 or later.
• Million-dollar counts are resales of any flat type at $1 million or more over the same months, ranked across 26 towns.
• Earlier launch prices and rates are HDB's Annex A indicative prices and final application rates for Mount Pleasant Crest and Bishan Terraces (October 2025) and Simei Symphony (July 2025). "Applications per flat" is all applications divided by flats offered.
• The gaps ($213k, $303k, $257k, $53k, $47k and $162k) are simple subtraction of HDB's top indicative price from the resale medians above.

The news:

• The Straits Times: Feb 2027 BTO launch to include second Mount Pleasant project, Bishan flats with shorter waiting times, 6 November 2026.

Official:

• HDB launch data (Annex A indicative prices) and final application rates: Mount Pleasant Crest and Bishan Terraces, October 2025; Simei Symphony, July 2025, as held in PropKaki's BTO launch tables.

The data:

• PropKaki analysis of HDB resale transactions, October 2025 to September 2026: Toa Payoh, Bishan, Tampines, Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang and all Singapore.

Related reading: our commentary on the Sin Ming and Toa Payoh shorter-wait flats, and our reviews of Mount Pleasant Crest, Bishan Terraces and Simei Symphony.

This is commentary by the PropKaki Editorial Desk on reporting by The Straits Times. The launch details and the analysts' views belong to that reporting; the resale comparisons, the framing and the opinions are ours.

It is opinion and general information, not financial or property advice, and not a valuation of any flat.

Published 6 November 2026.